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Research

Does Monitoring Change Teacher Pedagogy and Student Outcomes?

Peer-reviewed Publication

Journal of Labor Economics, forthcoming

Abstract:

In theory, monitoring can improve employee motivation and effort, particularly in settings lacking measurable outputs, but research assessing monitoring as a motivator is limited to laboratory settings. To address this gap, I leverage exogenous variation in the presence and intensity of teacher monitoring, in the form of unannounced in-class observations as part of D.C. Public Schools’ IMPACT program. As monitoring intensifies, teachers use more individualized teaching and emphasize higher-level learning. When teachers are unmonitored, their students have lower test scores and increased suspensions. This novel evidence validates monitoring as a potential tool for enhancing teacher pedagogy and employee performance more broadly.

Entrepreneurship Among Veterans: Comparative Evidence from Recent Surveys

Peer-reviewed Publication

International Small Business Journal, forthcoming
with William Skimmyhorn

Abstract:

The large literature on the correlates of entrepreneurship pays little attention to America’s military Veterans. We leverage two national surveys with rich demographic and behavioural data to estimate how military experience relates to entrepreneurship and financial success. After accounting for demographic differences, Veterans are less likely to become entrepreneurs than their peers. Veteran entrepreneurs also earn less and have lower financial satisfaction. These results contradict the common narrative and theoretical expectation that average military experience imparts human capital that prepares Veterans for entrepreneurship. We also find that female, Black, and more educated Veterans are relatively more likely to pursue entrepreneurship.

How People Learn: Adult Learning in the Military Context

Peer-reviewed Publication

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, forthcoming

Are Students Time Constrained? Course Load, GPA, and Failure

Peer-reviewed Publication

Journal of Public Economics, 2023
with Alexander Amaya

Abstract:

Given the simultaneous rise in time-to-graduation and college GPA, it may be that students reduce their course load to improve their performance. Yet, evidence to date only shows increased course loads increase GPA. We provide a model showing many unobservable factors – beyond student ability – can generate a positive relationship between course load and GPA unless researchers control student schedules. West Point regularly implements the ideal experiment by randomly modifying student schedules with additional training courses. Using 19 years of administrative data, we provide the first causal evidence that taking more courses reduces GPA and increases course failure rates, sometimes substantially.

Enacting the Rubric: Teacher Improvements in Windows of High-stakes Observation

Peer-reviewed Publication

Education Finance and Policy, 2021
with Emily Wiseman

Abstract:

Teacher evaluation systems that use in-class observations, particularly in high-stakes settings, are frequently understood as accountability systems intended as nonintrusive measures of teacher quality. Presumably, the evaluation system motivates teachers to improve their practice—an accountability mechanism—and provides actionable feedback for improvement—an information mechanism. No evidence exists, however, establishing the causal link between an evaluation program and daily teacher practices. Importantly, it is unknown how teachers may modify their practice in the time leading up to an unannounced in-class observation, or how they integrate feedback into their practice post-evaluation, a question that fundamentally changes the design and philosophy of teacher evaluation programs. We disentangle these two effects with a unique empirical strategy that exploits random variation in the timing of in-class observations in the Washington, DC, teacher evaluation program IMPACT. Our key finding is that teachers work to improve during periods in which they are more likely to be observed, and they improve with subsequent evaluations. We interpret this as evidence that both mechanisms are at work, and as a result, policy makers should seriously consider both when designing teacher evaluation systems.

The Changing Occupational Distribution by College Major

Peer-reviewed Publication

Research in Labor Economics. Vol. 45, 2017
with Michael Ransom

Abstract:

In this paper we examine the occupational distribution of individuals who hold bachelor degrees in particular fields in the United States using data from the various waves of the National Survey of College Graduates. We propose and calculate indexes that describe two related aspects of the occupational distribution by major field of study: distinctiveness (how dissimilar are the occupations of a particular major when compared with all other majors) and variety (how varied are the occupations among those who hold that particular major). We discuss theoretical properties of these indices and statistical properties of their estimates. We show that the occupational variety has increased since 1993 for most major fields of study, particularly between the 1993 and 2003 waves of the survey. We explore reasons for this broadening of the occupation distribution. We find that this has not led to an increase in reported mismatch between degree and occupation.

Path Dependence in the Labor Market: The Long-run Effects of Early Career Occupational Experience

Working Paper

(Job Market Paper)
with Jesse Bruhn, Jake Fabian, Matthew Gudgeon, Luke Gallagher, and Adam Isen

Abstract:

We study the causal effect of early career occupational experiences on labor market outcomes. To do so, we pair over two decades of administrative tax data with internal personnel records from the largest employer of young adults in the United States: the US Army. Enlisted soldiers work in a diverse and varied set of military occupations, ranging from combat roles like infantry, to non-combat roles like mechanics, legal services, financial specialists, cooks, dental hygienists, police officers, and network/computer specialists. Eligibility is determined by test score cutoffs which we leverage for causal identification in a series of 43 regression discontinuity designs. We find that early career occupational experiences can generate a substantial amount of path dependence, with point estimates that suggest a 20% increase in the likelihood of being observed in the same occupation 11-15 years later. We also find highly heterogeneous, yet predictable, effects on long-run wages. Implied changes in occupational earnings premia account for over 60% of the causal variation in earnings, with point estimates that suggest improvements in average wage rates translate essentially dollar-for-dollar into actual causal effects on earnings. Our results suggest that average occupational wage rates can serve as a simple heuristic for their impact on economic well-being.

Multi-tasking with Production Uncertainty: A Real-Effort Laboratory Experiment

Working Paper

Revision requested at Economic Inquiry
with Michael Kofoed

Abstract:

Policy advocates often promote market-like incentives for publicly provided services like education or healthcare (e.g., Medicare). Evidence for performance incentives in these sectors is mixed, possibly due to production uncertainty represented as uncertainty about the marginal effect of inputs. Using a principal-agent model, I demonstrate that such uncertainty can lead to inefficiencies in output-based incentives. The model illustrates how employees favor inputs with lower uncertainty and reduce overall effort. Input-based incentives might be more effective in such cases. I conduct a real-effort lab experiment which validates these predictions: participants shift from efficient inputs as uncertainty grows, and reduce overall effort.

Effects of Free Community College on Military Enlistment

Working Paper

Under review
with Michael Brown, Celeste Carruthers, Michael Kofoed, and Jenna Kramer

Abstract:

Young adults in the United States face critical decisions after high school, often defined by employment, enrollment, or enlistment. Military service provides educational benefits, but the attractiveness of this pathway wanes with perceived college affordability. We use the roll out of tuition-free community college in Tennessee to study the effects of Promise scholarships on enlistment. We find a 28 percent decline in military enlistment driven by Army, Navy, and Coast Guard, and concentrated in low-income counties. In addition, the composition of successful enlistees shifted towards those with more mechanical and automotive aptitude.

More than Sheepskin: A Natural Experiment on College and Earnings

Working Paper

Under review
with Timothy Justicz and Joseph Price

Abstract:

Evidence shows college increases earnings, but little causal evidence distinguishes whether these earnings come through human capital gains or from the signal a college degree sends. We use the unique situation created by the First World War, where several cohorts of West Point cadets were unexpectedly graduated early. These early graduates never saw combat in the war but were awarded a college degree---typically a four-year degree---after completing only two or three years of school. Using 1940 census data, we find an additional year of college leads to a 10-15\% increase in earnings 20 years post-graduation.

The Changing Distribution of Job Specificity

Working Paper

(Available upon request)

Abstract:

The workforce in the U.S. is more college educated than ever before. College graduates replaced the majority of jobs lost during the Great Recession, yet the college wage premium remains. I find a subsequent change in the skills required of employees. In a task-based model, I demonstrate how this skillset shift favors general human capital over specific. The theoretical innovation is to classify general human capital as a risk-reducing option for employers. The empirical innovation is to measure general and specific human capital within a major using a major's information content about occupational choice and skills. This measure has a direct interpretation in the theoretical model. Using machine learning, I present evidence that highly content-specific college majors experienced greater wage losses and have been slower to recover after the Great Recession.

The Cost of Bad Timing: The Effect of Military Exit Timing on Veteran Educational Attainment

Working Paper

(Available upon request)
with Michael Kofoed and Carl Wojtaszek

Abstract:

Successful job transitions often hinge on a worker’s access to education and re-training. Yet factors that impact this important population’s education investment decision have been largely unexplored. We use a two-stage least-squares approach to investigate the effect of military exit timing on educational attainment during the 1990s and then again in the 2010s after passage of the Post 9-11 GI Bill. Using military records, we find that longer wait times between a soldier’s exit and a semester start date reduces the likelihood of enrollment in the 1990s, but the reverse effect in the 2010s. We explore the differences between time periods by looking at the increased use of online education and for-profit schools.

Can Diversity Improve Equity? Achieving Racial Parity in Leader Assessment of Minority Team Members

Working Paper

Supported by the Upjohn Institute Early Career Research Grant
(Available upon request)
with Romaine Campbell

Abstract:

West Point cadets undergo a six-week intensive training course the summer prior to starting their coursework. We use the quasi-random assignment to platoons in this training to test the effects of having greater diversity in early-career training. As officers, we find cadets with increased diversity are less likely to give unsatisfactory ratings to Black non-commissioned officers. This outcome is measured five to nine years after initial training, demonstrating enduring and meaningful effects of early-career diversity. We show one mechanism may be that cadets with greater diversity in their initial training are more likely to self-select into more diverse peer groups while at West Point as measured by their club participation. We hypothesize this extends the initial diverse experience well into their professional years.

Performance Pay for Army Recruiters: A National RCT

Work in Progress

Project Description:

In a $14 million Randomized Controlled Trial, the US Army randomly enrolled Army recruiters into a performance pay program. Recruiters received bonuses for each new recruit, and subsequent bonuses as the new Soldier progresses in his career. We follow this experiment for two full years to track its effects on recruitment and recruit persistence.
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